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Fitch понизило прогноз биржевых цен на газ в мире и сохранило на нефть в 2024 году

ECONOMICS
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Международное рейтинговое агентство Fitch Ratings понизило прогноз на текущий год для биржевых цен на газ в мире и сохранило прогноз цен на нефть, следует из доклада Fitch.

«Международное рейтинговое агентство Fitch Ratings понизило свои прогнозы цен на газ на 2024 год в связи с ослаблением спроса и ожиданием достаточного предложения в краткосрочной перспективе. Наши базовые прогнозы цен на нефть не изменились», - говорится в сообщении.

Теперь средние биржевые цены на газ в Европе, согласно ожиданиям Fitch, в текущем году составят 10 долларов за 1 тысячу кубических футов (вместо 12 долларов прошлого прогноза), оценки на 2025 год и 2026 год остались без изменений - 10 и 8 долларов соответственно. В то же время агентство представило прогноз на 2027 год: стоимость 1 тысячи кубических футов составит тогда в среднем 7 долларов.

Ценовые прогнозы для газа на американском рынке тоже понижены: агентство ожидает, что средняя цена на Henry Hub составит 2,5 доллара за тысячу кубических футов по итогам текущего года (ранее - 3,25). На следующий год прогноз был сохранен и составил 3 доллара. Однако в 2026 году теперь ожидается цена в 3 доллара, а не 2,75. Затем, по прогнозам агентства, газ подешевеет до 2,75 доллара в среднем в 2027 году.

Что касается нефти, то прогноз для нефти марки Brent сохранен на текущий год на уровне 80 долларов за баррель, на 2025 год - на уровне 70 долларов, на 2026 год - на уровне 65 долларов. В 2027 году агентство ожидается цену в 65 долларов за баррель.

Средняя стоимость нефти WTI, как и ожидалось ранее, составит по итогам текущего года 75 долларов за баррель, в 2025 году - 65 долларов, в 2026 году - 60 долларов. В 2027 году агентство ожидает стоимость на уровне 60 долларов за баррель.

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